College Basketball Betting System

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Duke's Tyus Jones. Lance King/Getty Images Sport

One problem with most sports betting systems is that they tend to run through peaks and valleys. Just because a system has worked for a number of years is no guarantee that it will continue to be successful. This is especially true as a system gains popularity with bettors, as you can be sure that the oddsmakers are also aware of a profitable system.

One of the most popular college basketball betting systems over the years has fallen on hard times lately, as the betting public has made it a preferred system of theirs and that's to bet unranked home favorites against a ranked opponent.

Much like the Monday Night Home Underdog system for the NFL, the unranked college basketball favorite system is also a losing proposition. Teams that were favored by a point or two are now laying three or four points, as the oddsmakers know that people are going to bet on these teams regardless of the line, which is typically what happens when a system becomes well-known.

Between the 1997-98 and 2004-05 seasons unranked home favorites were a respectable 161-119, which is a 57.5% winning clip and there's definitely nothing wrong with that.

Unranked Home Favorites From 2005-06 through 2014-15 Seasons

All Favorites Straight-Up: 257-188 57.8%

All Favorites ATS: 211-224-10 48.5%

Favorites of 2.5 Points or Less Straight-Up: 108-107 50.2%

Favorites of 2.5 Points or Less ATS: 99-111-5 47.1%

Favorites of 3 to 5.5 Points Straight-Up: 121-68 64%

Favorites of 3 to 5.5 Points ATS: 95-89-5 51.6%

Favorites of 6 to 9.5 Points Straight-Up: 28-11 71.8%

Favorites of 6 to 9.5 Points ATS: 17-22 43.6%

As we see, all unranked home favorites are just 211-224-10 against the spread, which is a definite losing proposition. The favorites of 3 to 5.5 points have fared better than the other two groups, but even they will show a flat-bet loss, as they failed to win the needed 52.38% of the time to break even.

Unranked Home Favorites From 2010-11 through 2014-15 Seasons

All Favorites Straight-Up: 116-80 59.2%

All Favorites ATS: 94-99-3 48.7%

Favorites of 2.5 Points or Less Straight-Up: 45-42 51.7%

Favorites of 2.5 Points or Less ATS: 41-44-2 48.2%

Favorites of 3 to 5.5 Points Straight-Up: 56-30 65.1%

Favorites of 3 to 5.5 Points ATS: 42-43-1 49.4%

Favorites of 6 to 9.5 Points Straight-Up: 15-6 71.4%

Favorites of 6 to 9.5 Points ATS: 11-10 52.4%

It's more of the same for the past five years, with the lone exception being that favorites of six or more points were a break-even 11-10 against the point spread.

One thing that has become a bit noticeable over the past five years is the number of these games that fall under the total, as they've gone 81-100-3. The favorites of 2.5 points or less were 33-45-2 (42.3%), while the favorites of 3 to 5.5 points posted a 35-46 (43.2%) totals record. It was just the favorites of more than six points that showed a slight over tendency going 11-9-1. A similar, but less pronounced, totals trend showed for the 10-year study, as favorites of 2.5 points or less were 95-110-3 (46.3%) and favorites of 3 to 5.5 points were 86-95-3 (47.5%) in totals. Again, the favorites of six points or more showed an over tendency going 21-17-1 (55.3%).