Negative Population Growth

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Data from the Population Reference Bureau showed in 2006 that there were 20 countries in the world with negative or zero natural population growth expected between 2006 and 2050. 

What Does Negative Natural Population Growth Mean?

This negative or zero natural population growth means that these countries have more deaths than births or an even number of deaths and births; this figure does not include the effects of immigration or emigration. Even including immigration over emigration, only one of the 20 countries (Austria) was expected to grow between 2006 and 2050, though the rush of emigration from wars in the Middle East (especially Syria's civil war) and Africa in the mid-2010s could revise those expectations.

The Highest Decreases

The country with the highest decrease in the natural birthrate was Ukraine, with a natural decrease of 0.8 percent each year. Ukraine was expected to lose 28 percent of its population between 2006 and 2050 (from 46.8 million to 33.4 million in 2050).

Russia and Belarus followed close behind at a 0.6 percent natural decrease, and Russia was expected to lose 22 percent of its population by 2050, which would be a loss of more than 30 million people (from 142.3 million in 2006 to 110.3 million in 2050).

Japan was the only non-European country in the list, though China joined it after the list was released and had a lower-than-replacement birthrate in the mid-2010s. Japan has a 0 percent natural birth increase and was expected to lose 21 percent of its population between 2006 and 2050 (shrinking from 127.8 million to a mere 100.6 million in 2050). 

A List of Countries With Negative Natural Increase

Here's the list of the countries that were expected to have a negative natural increase or zero increase in population between 2006 and 2050.

Ukraine: 0.8% natural decrease annually; 28% total population decrease by 2050
Russia: -0.6%; -22%
Belarus: -0.6%; -12%
Bulgaria: -0.5%; -34%
Latvia: -0.5%; -23%
Lithuania: -0.4%; -15%
Hungary: -0.3%; -11%
Romania: -0.2%; -29%
Estonia: -0.2%; -23%
Moldova: -0.2%; -21%
Croatia: -0.2%; -14%
Germany: -0.2%; -9%
Czech Republic: -0.1%; -8%
Japan: 0%; -21%
Poland: 0%; -17%
Slovakia: 0%; -12%
Austria: 0%; 8% increase
Italy: 0%; -5%
Slovenia: 0%; -5%
Greece: 0%; -4%

In 2017, the Population Reference Bureau released a fact sheet showing that the top five countries expected to lose population between then and 2050 were:
China: -44.3%
Japan: -24.8%
Ukraine: -8.8%
Poland: -5.8%
Romania: -5.7%
Thailand: -3.5%
Italy: -3%
South Korea: -2.2%

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Your Citation
Rosenberg, Matt. "Negative Population Growth." ThoughtCo, Aug. 27, 2020, Rosenberg, Matt. (2020, August 27). Negative Population Growth. Retrieved from Rosenberg, Matt. "Negative Population Growth." ThoughtCo. (accessed March 30, 2023).