2016 Presidential Republican Primary State Tracker and Leaderboard

State-by-State Breakdown of Where the Candidates Stand

Jeb Bush
Jeb Bush. Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images News/Getty Images

The 2016 Republican Primaries are right around the corner and candidates are positioning themselves for battle. If recent history remains true, both Iowa and New Hampshire will see two different winners, and one of those two will be the nominee. No non-incumbent nominee in over 4 decades has won both Iowa and New Hampshire, but no eventual nominee failed to win one or the other. If the election were held today, Jeb Bush would win Iowa while Rand Paul would win New Hampshire, and one of those men would be the Republican nominee.

Candidate Results

1. Jeb Bush - The former Governor of Florida does really well in three of the first four "big" states as he leads in Iowa, Florida, and South Carolina. Florida is his thanks to home-field advantage, while Iowa and South Carolina are more surprising because they typically lean more conservative. He also does surprisingly well in the south, hinting that respect forformer President George W. Bush, is helping him greatly in the region and over-riding his status as the establishment candidate. If he wins three of the four early ones he would be hard to stop.

2. Rand Paul - The US Senator from Kentucky does well in New Hampshire and Colorado, while falling behind Bush (and Christie) in many other key states. His early problem is that he is not leading in the conservative states, a strong indicator that his conservatarian style may not be winning over the voters he needs. While Bush and Christie appeal to the same voters, Paul is splitting with a handful of candidates like Rubio, Cruz, Walker, Jindal, and possibly Perry, who is reinventing himself as a conservative Governor.

But Paul is building an agressive and impressive state-by-state network that will likely be unmatched in the primary season.

3. Chris Christie - The recently re-elected New Jersey Governor leads or places second in a lot of states, but he is mostly playing second fiddle to Bush. He does well in the northeast, leading in a number of states that are, unfortunately for him, further down the primary calendar.

He doesn't have a victory in 6 of the initial key states, and it would be hard to press on without an early victory somewhere. Not winning Iowa or New Hampshire is usually the beginning of the end, and so far Christie is the odd man out.

4. Ted Cruz - The US Senator from Texas is the Christie of the conservative side. He plays second fiddle to Paul in the early states and doesn't make a big move until his home state of Texas, which has moved up their primary to be more relevant in 2016. But Cruz's strength is in the south, southwest, and midwest, which is when the candidate pool has usually been whittled down to 2-3 candidates.

5. Marco Rubio - The US Senator from Florida still hasn't recovered from his 2013 immigration push, and Cruz appears to have taken much of the support he once had. It's unlikely that Paul, Cruz, and Rubio will all run, so the question is who benefits the most if one (or two) of the three sits out. Our guess is Rubio does not run if Jeb and Ted do, but he does if they do not.

6. Ben Carson - The world-famous neurosurgeon hasn't been polled enough to fairly rank. But when polled he shows promise. He has a 1st place finish in Maryland, his home state, a runner-up finish in Alabama, and is 4th in his one appearance in an Iowa poll.

He has outsold Hillary in the book race this year, and the grassroots support behind him is quite real.

7. Rick Perry - He is gearing up for a run but his attempts to transition from an establishment Governor to a conservative diehard have come with mixed results.

8. Bobby Jindal - He rarely shows up in the top 5 of polls, statewide or national, and his so-so state approval numbers do not help matters

State-by-State Rankings:

Below are the current standings of the candidates in each state using available polling data from multiple sources. Candidates currently seen as not likely to run (Huckabee, Palin, Ryan, Romney) are not on the list. It's likely that not all of those included will run either. I'm somewhat doubtful that allies Rubio and Bush would go head-to-head. States with no data are left NA, and states with an * are based on fewer than 3 polls.

States are listed in a mixture of importance and time, but keep in mind that some data is as old as 2013 and everything is fluid.

Iowa -   1. Bush      2. Paul     3. Christie     4. Cruz     5. Perry

New Hampshire -   1. Paul     2. Christie     3. Bush     4. Cruz     5. Rubio

Florida -   1. Bush     2. Rubio     3. Paul     4. Cruz     5. Christie

South Carolina -   1. Bush     2. Christie     3. Cruz     4. Paul     5. Rubio

Colorado -    1. Paul     2. Cruz     3. Christie     4. Rubio     5. Bush

North Carolina - 1. Bush     2. Christie     3. Paul    4. Rubio     5. Cruz

Missouri - NA

New York* - 1. Christie     2.Paul     3.Rubio     4. Bush     5.Cruz

Texas   1.Cruz     2.Paul     3.Bush     4.Perry     5.Rubio

Georgia - NA

Virginia -   1.Christie     2.Bush     3.Paul     4.Rubio     5.Cruz

Minnesota* -   1.Bush     2.Perry     3.Christie     4.Cruz     5.Rubio

Nevada - NA

Tennessee - NA

Oklahoma* - 1.Cruz     2.Paul     3.Rubio     4.Christie     5.Jindal

Ohio* -   1.Paul     2.Christie     3.Bush     4.Cruz     5.Rubio

Utah - NA

Louisiana -   1.Cruz     2.Bush     3.Jindal     4.Paul     5.Christie

Alabama* -   1.Bush     2.Carson     3.Paul     4.Christie     5.Perry

California - NA

New Jersey -   1.Christie     2.Bush     3.Paul     4.Rubio     5.Cruz

Arizona* -   1.Cruz     2.Paul     3.Christie     4.Bush     5.Walker

Michigan -   1.Bush     2.Paul     3.Christie     4.Rubio     5.Cruz

Illinois* -   1.Christie     2.Cruz     3.Bush     4.Paul     5.Walker

Wisconsin -   1.Walker     2.Paul      3.Cruz     4.Bush     5.Christie

Maryland* -   1.Carson     2.Bush     3.Christie     4.Paul     5.Rubio

Hawaii - NA

Massachusetts* -   1.Christie     2.Bush     3.Paul     4.Walker     5.Rubio

Pennsylvania -   1.Christie     2.Paul     3.Cruz     4.Bush     5.Rubio

Indiana - NA

Connecticut - NA

Delaware - NA

Rhode Island - NA

Nebraska* -   1.Paul     2.Christie     3.Cruz     4.Rubio     5.Walker

West Virginia - NA

Kentucky -   1.Paul     2.Bush     3.Christie     4.Rubio     5.Cruz

Oregon -   1.Cruz     2.Bush     3.Paul     4.Christie     5.Rubio

Arkansas -   1. Cruz     2.Paul     3.Bush     4.Perry     5.Christie

New Mexico - NA

South Dakota - NA

Montana* -   1.Cruz     2.Christie     3.Paul     4.Bush     5.Rubio