Top Baseball BettingTips

Wagering on baseball games is very popular and many professional sports bettors consider it to be one of the best ways to make money since it is one of the easiest sports to handicap. There are also many games each day, so you can be more selective in choosing games. Nevada Sportsbooks are usually happy to break even for the baseball season, which tells you that many players must be winning! Here are some good tips for you to follow.

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Avoid the Early Season

Baseball Game. Photo Courtesy (Nevada Casino History)

1. Avoid the Early Season.

Early in the baseball season. the weather can be bad at certain parks and some managers are still experimenting with their line ups.
In addition, many good pitchers get off to a slow start at the beginning of the season.
Spend the first few weeks studying the teams rather than betting them. The baseball season is long and there will be plenty of opportunities for betting the games.

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Bet the Underdogs

1. Bet Underdogs

Most professional sports bettors will tell you that the secret to winning is to bet the underdog. When you bet the money line on the underdog you are risking less to win more. Even the best baseball teams lose sixty games a year and the worst teams win close to that same number. You can use the Kelly Criterion to manage your bankroll and wager size.

The rest of the league falls somewhere in between. Consider that the more favorites you bet, the higher the percentage of wins you'll need to break even. 

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Consider Streaks

3. Consider Streaks

Streaks run both ways. A team that is winning is obviously playing well, but they are also confident.They will avoid psychological errors. They will, however, start demanding a higher price to bet on, so don't go too far with -150 and higher lines.

Losing streaks can also be long, so be careful wagering on a team to win. The best news is that you'll often get a good price of +200 or higher on a losing team.

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4. Pitchers

Bet on a team whose pitcher did well in his last game. Pitchers usually work every fourth day. If a pitcher got clobbered in his last outing he may not be mentally ready to pitch again. You should also consider the team’s relief pitcher. If a relief pitcher for a team has been overworked in his last two games you might want to avoid that team.

You should also consider the pitcher from the other team. When two top pitchers go head to head it could come down to a single mistake to decide the game. I would rather bet a top pitcher going against a lesser one than bet on two great pitchers dueling it out.

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Compare the Teams

5. Compare the Teams

Obviously the way to beat baseball is to compare the teams, beyond just pitching. You need to look at the strengths and weaknesses of each team. How do the starting players match up against each other? Some teams are more offensive with great hitters while other teams are stronger in the field playing defense.

If you are betting on the defensive-strength team, make sure they'll be able to score something, and that their starting pitcher is strong. If you bet them with their 3rd or 4th starter, you're likely to lose 1-0 or 2-1.

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Consider the Park

6. Consider the Park

Home field advantage is not as important in baseball as it is in football but you should still consider the ball park. Some teams play better in some parks than others. Some players just can’t seem to hit well in certain parks. Some parks have their own quirks such as the short left field at Fenway in Boston.

7. Shop for the Best Line

Shop around for the best money lines. Some Sports books are offering 20 cent money lines while others are offering 10 cent lines (also called a dime-line). Many of the local casinos are offering 10 cent lines while most of the casinos on The Strip are offering 20 cent lines. Dime lines are great for the player because the house edge is smaller and you win more when you bet the underdog.

Example: The Yankees are plus 140 over the Boston. If you bet the Yankees and they lose you are minus $140. If you bet Boston and they win you would be paid $130 with a dime line but would be paid only $120 with that 20-cent line. More »

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Avoid Rivalries

8. Avoid Rivalries

Some teams have a natural rivalry with each other such as the Yankees and Red Sox or Giants and the Dodgers. When these rivals play they are usually up for the game and play their best. Give special consideration to the dog team in these matchups.

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Injuries to the Starting Line Up

9. Injuries to the Starting Line Up

Make sure there are no injuries in the starting line up. In a game that could be decided by defense, you want to make sure the key players are healthy. Never back a team unless it can put its top players on the filed. A substitute for a key player could have timing that is just off a little from not playing a steady basis.

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10. Discipline

They key to winning at any form of gambling comes down to discipline. In Sports betting the biggest mistake that most players make is betting too many games. Players are on a winning streak may get greedy and decide to bet more games. Don’t chase your losses and be on the lookout for team trends.